Oral disease leads NCD prevalence — and periodontal disability rises with wealth

How big is the oral-disease burden, and is it shrinking? This Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 systematic analysis quantified oral disorders across 33 Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries from 1990 to 2023, with projections to 2050. It modelled incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for untreated caries (deciduous and permanent), severe periodontitis, edentulism and other oral disorders, using DisMod-MR 2.1, spatiotemporal regression and MR-BRT, and assessed associations with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

In 2023, oral disorders in LAC caused 290.8 million incident cases, 308.2 million prevalent cases and 2.41 million YLDs — ranking first in prevalence, second in incidence and tenth in YLDs among all causes over three decades. The age pattern is instructive: untreated caries of deciduous teeth peaks in childhood and of permanent teeth in young adulthood and midlife, while severe periodontitis and edentulism predominate in older adults, with YLDs rising sharply with age. A telling association: higher SDI correlated inversely with edentulism but positively with severe periodontal disability. By 2050, YLDs are projected to reach 3.81 million.

The message for the profession is strategic. Oral disorders are not a receding problem — they are the most prevalent non-communicable conditions, and the periodontal share of disability grows as populations age and as societies become wealthier. The authors call for integrating oral health into primary care and universal health coverage across the life course, alongside action on social and commercial determinants. It places adult and geriatric periodontology at the centre of public health, not its margins.